What happened to El Niño?

You may remember, starting about this time last year, NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, was predicting a El Niño pattern for late 2018 and into early 2019.  During a typical El Niño season, the Northwest is dryer than normal with temperatures above normal.  However, the region saw a lot of snow, with some areas recording record amounts, as well as very cold temperatures, so that El Niño prediction wasn't completely accurate.

So, what can we expect for the upcoming winter and even beyond.  National Weather Service meteorologist Marilyn Lohmann said El Niño should not be a factor in the coming year, as the global weather pattern has returned to neutral; for the most part.

“We’ve seen the water temperatures off the coast of South America they are still slightly above normal but the other parts that define an El Niño like the wind pattern and thunderstorm activity have diminished and are expected to remain neutral through next winter.”

Going forward, Lohmann said there’s really not a strong signal what the Northwest can expect snow and temperatures wise.

“We looked at about seven cases since 1950, most were in the 1990’s to present day, when we went from El Niño to neutral and the overall trend was for slightly cooler than normal temperatures and near normal precipitation," Lohmann continued.  "So, the climate prediction center is calling for slightly increased odds of normal to to above normal temperatures and seasonal precipitation.”

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