On Farm Stocks Leading Off Farm Stocks

USDA's new grain stocks report shows a very pronounced pattern for most crops in which stocks held on farms are out-weighing off-farm stocks.

As of September 1st corn stocks overall, 2.1 Billion bushels, down 1% from a year ago.  But, corn stored on farms is 753-million bushels, up 22% from a year ago.  Old-crop soy beans up 108% from last year total, the on-farm portion 162%, the on-farm on 92%.  Wheat is the same thing, on-farm stocks up 23%, off-farm down 8%.

"That increase in on-farm stock-holding is an indication that farmers have an expectation of seeing higher prices in the future,” said USDA's Deputy Chief Economist Warren Preston.  “And some of it could just be that they're not seeing demand, or an outlet, for they're production."

And he noted wheat is holding on, in hopes that trade talks with China, and other trade deals, will boost demand and prices.

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