Will Ag Trade Surplus Continue To Decline Into The New Year?

Back in 2014 the U.S. farm industry enjoyed an Ag trade surplus of $43 billion.  But, by 2018 that surplus had dropped to $16 billion, and then during fiscal year 2019 the surplus dipped again, down to $4.6 billion according to USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson.

So from 2014 to now U.S. Ag exports have fallen 11%, while imports of Ag products have climbed almost 20%.  So what's in store for this new 2020 fiscal year?  Johansson said USDA's trade forecast has imports continuing to climb.

"We forecast our agricultural imports in FY 2020 at $132 billion that's $1 billion more than we saw in 2019.

But USDA has exports at $139 billion, a $3.5 billion increase from 2019.  Johansson says that means the Ag trade surplus will increase from $4.5 billion this year to $7 billion in 2020.

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