USDA Looks At 10 Year Trends

USDA Economist, David Boussios, says short term outlook for 2020 within the agriculture department's 10 year projections got underway with last October's world supply and demand estimates.  Therefore based on the assumption of no trade deals, since realized, with Japan, China, Mexico and Canada.  That led forecasters to project higher production this year, and yet, ”we expect that will kind of drive down prices a bit [for this year and next],” Boussios said

However, once the firs year or two of USDA's current projections passes, the trends for the remaining period appears to be, “productivity increasing across a variety of commodities, but at the same time we have a global demand increasing at a higher rate. So that causes prices to slightly increase over our 10-year projection period ]

2020 crop production is expected to increase based on not just trade, but more particularly on better weather conditions than 2019.