The absence of an EU-UK trade deal on January 1st would cause significant economic losses on both sides for companies active in food and agriculture supply chains. Rabobank researchers said companies in the food supply chain should be prepared for loss of export and import opportunities. A certainty of a no-deal scenario is that the EU will consider the UK a third country as of January 1st, 2021, and will apply import tariffs on UK food and agriculture products, just as the EU does on imports from other third countries.
Import increases related to agriculture include dairy, red meats, sugar, and consumer foods, among other categories. Rabobank says that without a trade deal, export volumes out of the UK to the EU will shrink to almost negligible levels in most cases. Tariff levels range from 30%, for beef, dairy and sugar, to 10-30% for pork and poultry, and ten percent for some fruits and vegetables, beverages and fertilizers.
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