Many in the beef cattle industry think the national herd is in the middle of a reduction, which will last this year and next.

"We're expecting inventory numbers to be coming down. We're about a 2% decline in 2021, and about 1% in 2022," noted Katelyn McCullock with the Livestock Marketing Information Center. She added with the herd reduction, the expectation is for prices to increase into 2022; and that increase is expected to persist into 2023.

And the latest USDA report on cattle feedlot inventories lends some credence to that forecast. The number of cattle on feed on September first was just over 11.2 million head which was about 1% below a year ago," said USDA Livestock Analyst, Shayle Shagam. USDA's current 2022 forecast is for beef output to fall by about 3% average prices for steers to go up about 5%. USDA will come out with a new forecast though, October 12th.

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