The Phase One Trade Deal between the U.S. and China comes to an end in early 2022. Veronica Nigh, senior economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, says this year’s numbers are better that what the U.S. Ag industry saw during the same time period in 2020. Noting that so far, between January and November of this year, the U.S. has exported $30 billion to China, a 33% year-over year increase. Nigh said she's not sure the faster buying pace will get China to its purchasing commitments for this year.

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"The Phase One goal for 2021 is $40.4 billion; at $30 billion, China is relatively close. In December 2020, China bought about $4 billion worth of U.S. Ag products. Those of you doing the math: they’re about $10 billion short. So far, if the pattern holds, China's going to be behind in their purchase commitments for 2021.”

Nigh said the relationship between the U.S. and China is “challenging”.

“There's a lot of issues outside of agricultural trade that are significant, a lot of geopolitical issues, which means that though U.S. agriculture trade is incredibly important, you have to deal with a lot of significant political issues before you can start talking about U.S. ag trade," Nigh pointed out. "The additional communication and meetings between our government can only be helpful, however. The tariffs continue, but the purchase agreement is over at the end of 2021. That makes the relationship between U.S. and China all the more complicated going into 2022.”

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